When the 2025 WNBA season tips off, the league will welcome its 13th franchise as the Golden State Valkyries officially commence play. It has been a long time coming for the Bay Area, which the NBA has proven is already a hub for passionate basketball fans, and there is plenty of excitement about finally getting their own W franchise.
It will be an uphill climb to success for the newly minted Valkyries. A winning basketball team will likely not come about on day one, but the franchise will be chasing after greatness as hard as they can.
One of the most difficult questions about this team at the moment is how many games they will end up winning in their first season. Since Golden State has yet to roster a single player for the 2025 season, we do not have much information regarding that question. However, what we can do is consider the various circumstances facing this team and take a look at historical comps.
The expansion draft will be big in determining first-year success
Obviously, the players the Valkyries acquire in the upcoming WNBA expansion draft will go a long way toward determining the success of their first season. As a reminder, each team in the association can protect six players ahead of the draft. All the remaining players on their roster will be eligible to be selected with a maximum of one per franchise.
This will likely be the most significant resource the Valkyries end up having when it comes to assembling the roster for their inaugural season. They will be able to employ any strategy they want when it comes to which players to select, but if they want to win right away, they could swing for players with more tenure and solid foundational pieces that will be able to help them stay out of the mud from the beginning.
Ideally, you want to have a blend of veteran leadership and young talent on your initial roster so that there is room for growth. Finding the right balance there will be crucial for the Valkyries to not only compete in year one but also to have a future. Should they find themselves with a well-constructed roster when things are all said and done, they may end up surprising teams.
Inaugural seasons have historically been rough in the WNBA
Now, "surprising" may mean something different to every person reading because expansion teams have historically had it rough in the WNBA. Yes, the league is deeper than ever and Golden State may be able to pick up a solid roster from their competitors if they play their cards right, but the odds they truly impress and far outdo their expectations in year one are slim.
If we look at recent expansion teams around the league, it is hard to find one that was anything above a bottom-dweller when it came to the final win-loss record. In 2008, the Atlanta Dream posted a 4-30 record in a 34-game season. In 2006, the Chicago Sky were just one game better at 5-29 overall.
It would be easy to say the Valkyries are headed toward a dismal first season based on those numbers but do not go ahead and give them the league's worst record now. The talent available in the expansion draft is plentiful, and the number five overall pick in April's draft could be a difference-maker. Look for Golden State to jump a few lower-level teams in the standings in year one.
Prediction: 13-31 record