Setting Valkyries best-case, worst-case, most likely case scenarios for year one

Is Kate Martin heading to the Bay Area? It could happen!
May 25, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Las Vegas Aces first assistant coach Natalie Nakase reacts during the first half Las Vegas Aces at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
May 25, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Las Vegas Aces first assistant coach Natalie Nakase reacts during the first half Las Vegas Aces at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Valkyries will make their debut in 2025 after a Dec. 6 expansion draft and landing the No. 5 pick in the WNBA draft next year. It's early in the NCAA season, but the buzz is that the team will likely end up with UConn's Azzi Fudd. She's been out for two seasons due to injury, but in the past, was often neck-and-neck with teammate Paige Bueckers in terms of raw talent and performance. Fudd also brings serious shooting ability and major social media appeal to a team that will appreciate (and need) both.

There's a lot that could happen with the Valkyries as we march into 2025, but it all starts with the expansion draft next month. Here are a few best, worst, and most likely scenarios that could shape the team's first season.

What could happen during the expansion draft

Before we jump in completely, let's review what's going to happen during the expansion lottery on Dec. 6. Each current WNBA team will be allowed to protect up to six players. The list of players has to be submitted 10 days before the draft, and the Valkyries can choose one player from each team's list of unprotected players. It's tough! The team can also only choose one player who is an unrestricted free agent, so they have to choose wisely.

If there are three teams who are likely to be hit the hardest by the expansion draft, it's the Lynx, Sun, and Liberty. Success comes at a high cost, because the players who win are going to be the most highly sought after.

The Liberty are most likely to protect Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, and Leonie Fiebich, which gives them one more player to keep safe. The Sun seem likely to keep Alyssa Thomas, DiJonai Carrington, Marina Mabrey, and Veronica Burton (and also don't have to worry about losing DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones because both players are under core designation). They could (and should, in my opinion) end up protecting Olivia Nelson-Odoba but might lean toward Tiffany Mitchell, who played more this season.

Unrestricted free agents:

Okay: let's break it down step by step. The list of unrestricted free agents includes Plum, Nneka Ogwumike, DeWanna Bonner, Gabby Williams, Sydney Colson, DiJonai Carrington, Chennedy Carter, Brittney Griner, and Breanna Stewart — and that's hardly comprehensive.

Obviously, the team is going to need to snag a leader who can build a new franchise from the ground up, and there are plenty of them on that list. Some, like Stewie, have been pretty vocal about having no interest in swapping coasts, and it's likely the Liberty would opt to core her for the second time to keep her on the team. Others — including Griner and Ogwumike — are also under core protection.

There are a few free agents who can't be protected by their teams and who would be especially brilliant pick ups for the Valkyries. No particular order, but here's where my head is at:

Best case scenarios:

Courtney Vandersloot: The loss of Vandersloot would be a heavy hit for the Liberty, but the veteran guard would be a major scoop who could thrive in a mentor role, especially if she's paired with a rookie point guard. The only potential snag is she's 35 and might be eyeing retirement sooner rather than later. But in just about every other way, Vandersloot is likely the only free agent who won't be protected by her team (she was already taken off the starting roster) and is the best bet for the Valkyries.

Veteran Players who could be picked up:

Best case scenario:

Diamond Miller: I know she was the No. 2 overall pick only one short year ago, but the Lynx haven't seemed like the best fit for Miller, and I wouldn't be surprised if she'd be interested in exploring other teams. She only clocked around 10 minutes a game this year, a major fall from the 2023 season. At 23, she could likely play at least another decade, and the Bay Area could end up a better fit.

Worst case scenario:

Marine Johannes: If she decides to come back to the league, Johannes (who missed the 2024 season to play for France in the Olympics) could be an amazing addition to the Valkyries. There's always the risk that she will opt to stay in Europe, and it's possible a newborn team might not like the idea of one of its star players leaving for weeks in June to play in the EuroBasket. The Valkyries would also have to buy Johannes' rights from the Liberty.

Most likely scenario:

The Valkyries will snag Miller and Vandersloot, as well as a few second-year vets who haven't had the chance to get as much clock as they should, including Kate Martin (Aces), Nika Muhl (Storm). I think NaLyssa Smith, who isn't likely to be protected by the Fever (especially after she expressed her frustration with the 2024 season) will also make her way to the Bay Area.

The likely Valkyries roster will include: Miller, Vandersloot, Martin, Muhl, Smith, Celeste Taylor (Mercury), Nia Coffey (Dream), Dana Evans (Sky), and maybe Kalani Brown, if the Wings don't protect her.

The Valkyries' playoff chances: the most likely scenario

I'm not even sure a best case/worst case comparison is worth it, because the new team is going to be on the younger side and hungry — and will boast a healthy mix of veterans who can lead and younger teammates who can listen, which could and should help the team land some major victories. Head coach Natalie Nakase won two back-to-back championships with the Aces in 2022 and 2023 and definitely knows what it takes to lead.

I think the team will be in the playoffs next year. Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob (also owner of the Valkyries) wants to win and he makes sure it happens — I can't imagine him approaching a WNBA team any differently.